I made some comments on a Jeremy Warner piece in the Daily Telegraph yesterday (link below).  In one of the replies a correspondent (andp) asked me if I wanted to see the Labour Party in government after the next General Election.  This is what I said to andp (edited slightly for this post) …

I think that the next British government will be a Labour government.  I can’t say that I want that, but I suspect that the BBC and the British people do.  So much of our society now hangs off the state that it’s difficult to see how or why a majority of turkeys would vote for Christmas, when push comes to shove.

Despite the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) declaring that 70% of its poll respondents wanted to see the size of the state cut to 30% of GDP (it’s now around 50%), few people would vote for that in a General Election once the consequences were spelled out on the hustings, most likely by the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats [if you’re interested click on the second link below which takes you to a July 2011 report issued by the IEA entitled “Sharper Axes, Lower Taxes”].

Our political class is hamstrung by half-a-century of facilitating the development of a soft-socialist state; the development of a client state which dispenses faux-wealth and benefits to tens of millions of people courtesy of the Money Tree.  The way we live now is unsustainable; the national debt is growing and will continue to grow.

However, like I said, the political class is by and large powerless to turnaround our economy unless they take truly draconian steps to change things; it’s really no different to saving a company which is going down the pan.  There’s no easy way to do it, but if you don’t do it – you go down the pan.

I don’t envy the politicians at all on this, but it’s primarily a mess of their own making.  They want power; they’ve always wanted power.  For decades they’ve been buying votes by promising the earth to the electorate, without the wherewithal to keep the promise going indefinitely.  It just so happens that we’re now living at that moment in time when a confluence of economic and political circumstances is making it nigh-impossible for our unsustainable societal model to continue.  So it will stop.

A Labour Party in government in 2015 would simply accelerate our societal train in to the buffers. Then the fireworks will start.

PS The first comment against Jeremy Warner’s article is also mine, as it happens (if you set the comments to ‘Best Rating’).

‘It’s plain what George Osborne needs to do …’:

‘Sharper Axes, Lower Taxes’:


  1. Bickers · ·

    What’s immoral is that our generation is bequeathing our kids and theirs the bill for our profligacy. I’m afraid that we may have to end in a Greek like situation before the tide turns. As usual the politicians,civil servants, quangocrats & EUSSR apparatchiks will walk away with impunity.


    1. moraymint · ·

      To a large extent Bickers that’s why I’m so concerned for my own children. Conditions are being massaged and suppressed for now, but the lid will blow off at some time in the next decade or two …


      1. Bickers · ·

        I think it may happen much sooner MM. The West is living way beyond its means. The EU will blow before too long; maybe it’ll be the Italians or Spanish (but watch out for the French). As for the UK we’re on the edge. When I heard the other day that public sector employment was rising again I was dumbfounded. If our politicians can’t or won’t get a grip of profligate spending then the sooner we go bust & the IMF is called in the better, for our children’s sake at the very least


  2. David · ·

    Dear Moray,
    I am pleased to have discovered your personal mouthpiece.
    I rate your comments in Telegraph Land highly. Keep it up.
    I too have now assumed a Labour government will happen. Strangely, I’ve gone from initial despair to a calm acceptance. I feel it is simply part of the inevitable destructive path this country still has to follow. The bottom of the trough is still a long way off. When the IMF is called in and the feckless have no more pocket money, it will be grotesquely fascinating to watch the resulting carnage.


    1. moraymint · ·

      David, thanks for visiting! Yes, there are days, I confess, when I develop a somewhat morbid fascination with how things could well unfold over the next, say, decade. I have yet to see anything at all which gives me the confidence to think that the British political class ‘gets it’, so to speak. We’re on a declining socio-economic trajectory I fear, and it’s rather difficult to discern the most likely endgame.


  3. Very good piece MM.

    I I have to agree. I do think a Labour Government is inevitable in 2015. I do suspect we are returning to the 1970’s. There seems to be a growing anti-profit sentiment, particularly in the mainstream media. There was a phone in piece on the Jeremy Vine show yesterday about Hugo Chavez, and also about Switzerland introducing caps in executive pay and it seemed every caller bar one wanted a Hugo Chavez character in power here, and the callers responding to the executive pay cap were almost swivel eyed. The Governor of the BoE is now talking of nationalisation.

    As much as I would be disappointed to have another Labour Government I do feel that they should clear up their own mess. As the economic reality sets in this would ultimately lead to another Winter of Discontent, or possibly longer as the ‘markets’ would dictate Gov’t policy. I doubt we are looking at a societal collapse, but there are going to be some fireworks as people realise the public sector gravy train is unaffordable and their living standards decline further. I suspect a Greek like situation.


  4. Morvan · ·

    “A Labour Party in government in 2015 would simply accelerate our societal train in to the buffers. Then the fireworks will start.”

    A Labour – or Lab/Lib – government is inevitable in 2015 if not before. The client state will vote for more of the same, and UKIP will decimate the Tory vote. How long it lasts will depend on the use it makes of RIPA and the CCA and the loyalty of the police and armed services. Perhaps that is what you meant by ‘fireworks’?



    1. moraymint · ·

      In all honesty, I’m not quite sure what I mean by ‘fireworks’; not in any detailed sense anyway. In the simplest terms I think I mean civil unrest. It’s hard to see how our society can or will accept withdrawal of the heroin that is the state consuming over 50% of GDP without there being consequences. We are entering uncharted waters as we proceed in to the next quarter-century. I have some thoughts on how individuals and families and communities might prepare for what could (could) lay ahead. I’ll post them here during the year.


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