Big_Ben_posterDepending on your political point of view here is a fact which is either sobering, or which says something rather profound about the thinking of the British people: UKIP is now the 3rd largest party in British politics in terms of vote share. Under Proportional Representation UKIP would have 83 seats in Parliament: 39% of the number of Labour seats and 35% of the number of Tory seats. Say what you like about UKIP, but it’s now the third force in British politics (farewell to the always rather pointless LibDems).  In many constituencies UKIP is the opposition: 118 second places across the country.

The Scottish National Party needs just 25,000 votes to get a seat in Parliament.  For UKIP, 3.5 million votes translates into just one seat in Parliament.  One wonders how the English in particular feel about this?

If you think UKIP is a right-of-centre political party then between them the Conservative Party and UKIP would now have well over 100 more seats in Parliament than the Labour Party. Perhaps the British people don’t really buy in to socialism? Maybe that’s because, in the end, socialists always run out of other people’s money.

Under the last Tory-led coalition the UK enjoyed the fastest rate of growth in the G7 group of developed countries – with record numbers of jobs having been created. When all’s said and done, creating jobs, creating wealth is what does it for most of us. The reason we have a Conservative government today, therefore, is because most British citizens reject socialism as a political philosophy.

Amen to that …


  1. Have you noticed how the BBC has turned a minor internal spat at UKIP into its headline story? This has been given far more coverage than the comments of various Blairites about Ed Miliband!

    Nothing to do with UKIP’s plan to cut the licence fee by 2/3rds, is it?

    Meanwhile, Robert Peston’s column tells us that immigration has kept interest rates low. I like Robert – a former colleague, in fact – but this is plain silly.

    I really used to respect the BBC, but it’s bias is now extreme.


  2. A travesty of democracy that UKIP got just one seat. I hope Nigel’s re-elected as leader, he has the presence and charisma and is a natural speaker. He also has integrity, (unlike vichy-Dave).
    Were Nigel not to take the helm again, I rather like Suzanne Evans. She comes across very positively and brooks no nonsense from uppity interviewers who get carried away. She even put Andrew Neil in his place!


    1. Ellie Mae's grandad · ·

      Despite his immense talents and charisma, NF is not now the person to take the part onwards. We need much heart-searching about not only who but how. It won’t be easy.
      NF is a sound man and not on any ego trip in my opinion and will thus want the best people and the best arrangement for the next ten or more years. He must not disappear, his value as a mentor is priceless. He still has more than anyone to contribute.
      We have to face the fact that his leadership has brought UKIP this far, a huge achievement, but may not now be the correct way forward. To be brutally objective, he failed to gain a seat and the party made inadequate inroads into a position of power.
      There’s more than one way to skin a cat . . . and UKIP must find several of them, but fast.


      1. @ Ellie Mae’s grandad
        I agree. Nigel Farage has truly done the heavy lifting to get UKIP to this ‘coming of age’, point. (and I suspect it has had an detrimental effect on his personal health also). And as a UKIP member, I feel a tinge of guilt and a bit of a traitor, as I acknowledge that he might not be the best person for the next needed *lift* for UKIP. But we have till September to think this through.
        I also think (and fear), that the political dynamic has changed over the last few days, in ways that none of us have fully yet grasped. The wholly unexpected sweeping to power (331 seats) of the Tory party, has left us all with no democratic *off switch* for the next five years. What I fear now, is that whatever draconian policy they have in store, can only be fought on the streets as it was in the Thatcher years?
        On this latter point, I have never wanted so much, to be wrong.


        1. Ellie Mae's grandad · ·

          You’re seeing what I’m seeing; not very good, is it?


          1. flyer · ·

            I can see this too, I’m glad you can. The trouble is, the majority of people have a habit of just seeing what they want to see or burying their head in the sand, a trait that politicians play upon.

            When events come to their logical conclusion, people always seem so surprised.


  3. I fought the Heywood & Middleton seat again for UKIP (having nearly won it last October – 617 votes short). Although I couldn’t win it in the general election I received 32% of the vote. My Party achieved 13% of the national vote (14% of the English).

    Although we polled more than 2.5 times the votes of the SNP they have 56 MPs, we have 1. We polled a third of the votes achieved by the Tories yet they have 330 more seats and c.500,000 Irish votes earns 18 seats.

    So, in the UK depending on where you live your vote carries more democratic weight than that of an English UKIP voter. There may have been a time when this made sense, however it no longer does so. Our constitution is broken and needs fixing as a matter of urgency.


  4. akrasia · ·

    Thank you MM for the excellent analysis as always. My take is this.

    The LibDems lost credibility with their involvement in the coalition through a combination of arrogance and two key errors : reneging on tuition fees and blocking the re aligning of constituency boundaries to reflect current changes.

    More specifically the result yesterday was simply tribal.
    Once the possibility of a Scottish Nationalist tail wagging the Labour Socialist dog and influencing English policy via the back door became a real possibility (according to the polls and Nicola Sturgeon’s threats!) it gave the English the necessary motivation to see them off via the conduit available. Unfortunately for UKIP they were victims of the backwash, otherwise they may have won a couple more seats. Nevertheless 3.8 million permanently transferred votes is a constituency one ignores at ones peril.

    I also think there was some ‘afters’ involved for the aggression of the Scot Nats to the Union supporters in their referendum as well as Labour finally getting the economic kicking they should have had five years ago.

    Please excuse the tabloid style rugby similes but if the cap fits.


  5. Ellie Mae's grandad · ·

    You’re inferring that the Conservatives are right of centre.

    I find it difficult to believe that even you have bought into this mess of pottage.

    Scotland and the Moray Firth are beautiful; enjoy them, despite the troubles that will soon befall.


  6. Peter · ·

    I can only think that there is some confusion in Scotland, and people are mistaking Pride and Patriotism, which is great, with Nationalism, which in the hands of the SNP means socialism. I doubt it will last.


  7. Good analysis, as ever.

    I look at it like this. The coalition parties lost 14.4% of the national vote, all of it lost by the hapless yellow lot whilst the Tory vote was solid (it increased fractionally). Of this swing against the coalition, 9.5% went to UKIP, 2.8% to the Greens and 3.1% to the SNP. It was once said that Britain would fight to the last Frenchman – well, the Conservatives have fought to the last Lib Dem!

    63% of the vote went to parties other than the Conservatives. Labour needed to get most of this 14.4% anti-coalition swing but got only 1.5%, because it is not trusted on the economy, and got smashed in Scotland.

    The new government has promised not to raise the main taxes, and to eliminate the deficit, whilst giving various hand-outs (pensioners, the NHS, first-time buyers), so cuts in unprotected public services will be hefty. I cannot see how big cuts in defence can be avoided.

    The anti-Tory votes in Parliament are fragmented as never before. So the SNP’s 56 seats are pretty meaningless, in simple voting terms. What happens when Scots discover this?

    The promised EU referendum will probably happen, but with massive, lavishly-funded support for staying in.

    The public will go along with all this if the economy fares well, not otherwise. If you take our budget and current account deficits together, we are living on tick. The biggest single economic risk is global bond markets.

    Interesting times!


  8. CMP · ·

    I’m not sure what went wrong with Scotland, they produced the father of capitalism (Adam Smith) and a large chunk of the industrial revolution. Embracing socialism like this is both disappointing and bewildering, Sir John James Cowperthwaite will be turning in his grave I expect.


  9. Trevor Bailey · ·

    I could not agree more, MM.

    I am so glad to see the back of the LibDems. I have been posting elsewhere for a very long time now that their next party conference will be held in a “telephone box” – as it used to be many years ago. Seems I was right after all.


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