NOVEMBER 2018 | BREXIT CRUNCH MONTH


Democracy-2

‘The British read ‘Animal Farm’ and take it as a warning; the architects of the European Union take it as a blueprint. There can be no fellowship between light and darkness’

Jeremy Scarlett
Daily Telegraph Commenter
28 September 2017

Withdrawal Agreement

Pinch-punch, first of the month: welcome to November 2018.

The Conservative government has developed, largely in secret and using an unelected civil servant as its architect, a proposal for withdrawing the UK from the European Union. This draft ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ is in effect the terms on which the UK and the EU will get divorced. Mid-November is the revised deadline for ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement within the UK and EU parliaments.

You might reasonably expect that the Withdrawal Agreement would reflect the outcome of the EU Referendum of June 2016: namely that the UK would be leaving the Single Market, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. You might expect the Withdrawal Agreement to make clear that the end result of the divorce process would be that the UK will have recovered its sovereignty; that the EU would in future have no power or influence over how the UK is governed, nor how the UK trades with all the nations of the world.

Well, you would probably be wrong.

In fact, the Withdrawal Agreement has been designed deliberately to conflate the UK leaving the EU with the UK remaining in the EU. Presumably this strategy of conflating Leave and Remain is supposed to reflect the fact that 48% of the electorate wanted the UK to remain in the EU and, therefore, the UK’s withdrawal from the EU needs to be a conciliatory fudge. Somehow, we need to come up with a way of being half-pregnant.

If the EU Referendum result had gone the other way, one wonders how the hypothetical 48% who wanted the UK to leave the EU would have been accommodated in the UK’s future relationship with the European Union? Methinks there would have been no accommodation at all. Nigel Farage would have been despatched to hell in a handcart, with Establishment glee.

As of today, we’ve not had sight of the final version of the Withdrawal Agreement which started life as the ‘Chequers Proposal’, itself foisted upon the Cabinet from nowhere by the Prime Minister at a meeting at Chequers in July this year. So much for Cabinet government.

At the time, Martin Howe QC assessed the Chequers Proposal, ie the nascent Withdrawal Agreement as follows:

‘These proposals lead directly to a worst-of-all-worlds “Black Hole” Brexit where the UK is stuck permanently as a vassal state in the EU’s legal and regulatory tar-pit; still has to obey EU laws and ECJ rulings across vast areas; cannot develop an effective international trade policy, nor adapt its economy to take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit, [whilst losing] its vote and treaty veto rights as an EU Member State’

The Chequers Conclusion – A Memorandum
Martin Howe QC

There is also the argument that the Withdrawal Agreement and the UK/EU relationship that flows from it have been designed expressly to ease the UK’s return to the European Union in the fullness of time. After all, the majority of the British political class, the Establishment, ‘big business’, the BBC, 16.1 million people and the EU itself, of course, never wanted the UK to leave the European Union. The EU Referendum was predicated and promoted on the basis that the British people would vote to remain in the EU. The then Prime Minister, David Cameron, bet the farm on this outcome – and lost. He legged it the morning after the voting result.

Democracy On The Line

‘Democracy is the only method of peaceful change that man has yet discovered’

The Constitution of Liberty
F A Hayek

Democracy is a government’s authority which flows from the people and is based on their consent. If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by the UK and EU parliaments later this month then, without wishing to put too fine a point on it, that date will mark the end of democracy in the UK. At the very least it will mark that democracy in the UK is on the line.

‘Democracy is only truly respectable if its method of delivery is good’

The Heart of Things – Applying Philosophy to the 21stCentury
A C Grayling

Why? Well, because the UK government had no authority to pursue an agreement between the UK and the EU which would result in a foreign power having significant enduring influence over the political, economic and social arrangements of this country. Look again at Martin Howe’s summary of the British government’s Withdrawal Agreement proposals above. They do not even begin to reflect the British people’s democratic decision that the UK should leave the EU lock, stock and barrel; for that was the Leave option placed before the electorate in the EU Referendum, and that’s what the majority of British people – all 17.4 million of them – voted for. To treat that decision with the contempt reflected in the Withdrawal Agreement is for the British government to spit in the face of democracy.

‘In the European Union, democracy is not the whirring engine of the system; it is merely distant noise’

Charles Moore
The Daily Telegraph

Brexit In Name Only

Of course, it could transpire that the final version of the Withdrawal Agreement turns out to be a model description of how the UK will recover its sovereignty unfettered and irrevocably. However, the pitiful performance of the Conservative government this past 2 years, exacerbated by all those forces striving to subvert or even reverse the Brexit process lead me to think that the final Withdrawal Agreement proposals will be a masterclass in ‘Brexit In Name Only’, or BRINO as it’s been dubbed.

Some of you reading this, including friends whom I know personally, will have voted Remain. You may well be delighted with how things are progressing vis-à-vis the UK potentially remaining tethered to the EU. Generally, the evidence shows that the Remain vote was focused primarily on economics rather than politics (sovereignty essentially). However, the emphasis of the British government Withdrawal Agreement proposals is on economics – at virtually any political cost. This is the travesty because the Referendum democratic majority was concerned with the politics of the UK’s membership of the EU; Leave voters set aside the doom-laden and often preposterous economic forecasts in favour of opting for unalloyed self-determination …

Post-Brexit Britain

There’s a separate debate to be had about democracy generally and the validity of referendums in particular. However, for now, the British people consented to, and went through a perfectly legitimate decision-making exercise a couple of years ago. This month we shall see whether the will of the majority of people who voted in the EU Referendum will be honoured, or if the will of our governing elites is to prevail. If the latter, then I’d wager that there’s much political, economic, social and constitutional trouble ahead.

Comparing The EU With The USSR

Recently, the Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, compared the EU to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This didn’t go down too well with the Prime Minister, nor with her friends in Brussels. That said, if you have 5 more minutes to spare, here is Vladimir Bukovsky on the subject of the workings of the European Union …

———————————

Thank you for reading this post. If you disagree with my thoughts and ideas, please comment below and tell me. Indeed, comment too if you agree. In particular, I’d like to read a forensic, water-tight analysis of why the UK or any EU member state should be governed by the European Union. I’ve yet to read such a thesis in any of the EU/UK-related debate before or since the EU Referendum. Keep the discussion alive: click on the Facebook and Twitter buttons below; email the post to your friends. Make democracy work. Have a great weekend.

39 comments

  1. Mr Morraymint:

    Excellent writing, as usual, and you summarise my views better than I could express.

    That May is medically challenged with diabetes is known, but I am also suspecting autism. Many Tory MPs display their own conditions of lazyness, stupidity, and the desire for a sinecure. Patriotism is some way down the list.

    Fortunately, I emigrated to Australia (we have our own problems, but minor by comparison), but my guess is that you should prepare for a generation of Labour rule.

    Notwithstanding a major challenge to May, and Mogg is trying hard, I fear its game over for the UK. Its been my view for quite some time that the gene pool has been too depleted by WW1 and WW2, and subsequent immigration. That why I left.

    Like

  2. Robert E Lee · · Reply

    On the money as usual MM. IPOTARTP rules, but what to do about it is the problem.
    I have never felt so utterly forlorn and helpless about a political situation in my 70 years.
    (IPOTARTP–It’s patently obvious to all right-thinking people).

    Like

  3. […] This article was first published on ‘Moraymint Chatter‘ and we re-publish with kind permission by the […]

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  4. Thomas Taylor · · Reply

    With the EU looking increasingly likely to implode from what is approaching a perfect storm of problems like Italy, QE ending, Target 2 (possibly the most worrying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2QYaJGgtw8) etc. then perhaps the strategy chosen is to wait until everyone leaves or there’s nothing left to leave. That way there won’t be any economic war and we won’t be blamed for it which might help us a lot in the increasingly difficult times ahead.

    Like

  5. reallyoldbill · · Reply

    The question of our membership of the EU has been a cancer at the heart of British politics for 25 years, ever since John Major forced the Maastricht Treaty establishing it through parliament without bothering to obtain consent from the British electorate via a referendum. As every main party in the 1992 general election supported membership, despite polls clearly showing that the nation was divided down the middle on the issue, that was the only possible means by which signing up could have been legitimised. As it is, we now have no means of proving whether or not there was ever a majority consenting to this unprecedented transfer of the nation’s sovereignty to an outside body, and that is what has given rise to the toxic political atmosphere for a quarter of a century. I always thought that an eventual vote on the matter would settle it once and for all. I was obviously wrong.

    It is still a mystery to me why the establishment is wedded to the idea of membership of what is undeniably an embryonic Federal Union in which the UK would be simply a small component part, much as Texas or Florida are in the USA, but without the protection that the US written constitution and Supreme Court offer them. It is, however, undeniable that this is the case, and the unexpected result of the referendum seems to have caught them completely off guard. Their response, which started as a reluctant acceptance and public statements that the result must be respected and acted upon in order to safeguard democracy, has gradually morphed into open and blatant attempts to reverse the decision by any and all means possible, including those which at first glance seem to be both unconstitutional and possibly illegal. The Electoral Commission has not even tried to hide its blatant bias, referring financial backers of the Leave campaign to the National Crime Agency over allegations of illegal funding, whilst refusing point blank to investigate a dossier handed to it by a serving MP which contained allegations of similar behaviour by the Remain side which, certainly to the extent of what was made public, warranted such a response. The Commission didn’t even feel it necessary to give the appearance of being even-handed. We are therefore inevitably left with the ludicrous situation in which the very body established to create faith in the fairness of the democratic system is actually doing the exact opposite and fatally undermining it. The fact that those using the referral, (note not yet any kind of conviction of wrong doing by Leave supporters, just an investigation), as evidence that justifies the call for a “People’s Vote”, citing the possibility of foreign-sourced money being used to influence the result, are themselves happy to accept substantial sums of money from a US-based Billionaire to fund their campaign, only further proves the distorted level of iniquity to which they will stoop without a blush. We could be watching the death throes of democracy in the country, and the establishment seems to be unconcerned (it cannot be unaware of that possibility) such is its level of unexplained attachment to the European Project.

    We don’t yet, of course, know how any of this will actually pan out in the end, but the very fact that sensible, politically moderate people are now aware of just how shallow is the commitment to real democracy by a large number of people who are actually supposed to be safeguarding or delivering it, both in Westminster and Whitehall, that there is a very real danger that they may disengage totally from the process in future, or even worse, engage in physical opposition to it. Scotland had its own internal divisions in the past of course with clans fighting clans and both opposing the Edinburgh establishment, but England had a full-on civil war which ended with a king losing his head. It would be a tragedy if the current parliament chose to behave in a manner that created the very real possibility of producing unnecessary strife on our streets again in pursuit of something we all thought that we already enjoyed: democracy. Unless a real Brexit of the kind that was clearly promised by the PM in her Lancaster House speech is actually delivered, not just some damage-limitation, pseudo Brexit which leaves us as a vassal state suffering all the disadvantages of EU membership but none of the opportunities and benefits of Brexit, then the very least that we can expect is a further 25 years of energy-sapping political infighting; if we are lucky!

    Liked by 2 people

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Outstanding analysis as usual Bill …

      Like

    2. Mark Curtis, in his book – ‘Secret Affairs – Britain’s Collusion with Political Islam’ lays out the unvarnished truth. A recently-published photograph of the present PM genuflecting in Downing Street to a Saudi ‘ruler’ tells you all you need to know about where her loyalties lie. Couldn’t really see Winston ingratiating himself like that. G-d deliver us from all this corrupt crap. www dot livingstones dot blog is our base for better things.

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  6. The Establishment must believe they can get away with betraying the result of the Referendum because they can be bribed with their own money to vote Conservative for fear or Corbyn – and if they don’t and Labour is elected, Corbyn can be prevented from implementing most of his more destructive policies.

    I think they are mistaken. A large number of people will not forgive the Tories and will look for an alternative, whether that’s UKIP or ANOther or they may simply withhold their vote. We are likely to get a Corbyn Government, possibly propped up by the SNP in return for another independence Referendum.

    Interestingly, Stephen Kinnock has written an article in The Times today (promoting his new book) claiming that we must remain in the EEA in order to “bring the country back together” and appease the 48% who lost the Referendum. He obviously believes that the 52% majority who voted to LEAVE the EU and regain our Sovereignty won’t mind having their majority decision overturned. I think he’ll find out he’s wrong the hard way.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Excellent, and chimes with my own line of thinking.

      I’m giving serious consideration to campaigning and voting for Labour at the next GE. The country generally and the Conservative Party need the mother-of-all wake-up calls. Five years of increasing economic and social catastrophe might bring people to their senses.

      Like

      1. You can also consider our alternative – we are working to put an INDEPENDENT candidate up for every UK seat (all 650 of ’em) – this is not then a ‘party’ initiative at all – we all know that party politics is not fit for purpose. – www dot livingstones dot blog – is where we are at.

        Like

  7. […] NOVEMBER 2018 | BREXIT CRUNCH MONTH […]

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  8. The closeness of the referendum is indeed irrelevant. When the General Election result was close in 2017, did the Conservatives adopt a few of Labour policies in recognition of the fact? No, it’s winner takes all.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Indeed, sir. OK, so we must be cognisant of the potential tyranny of the majority. But in the end, it’s called democracy.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. Douglas Brodie · · Reply

    The thought processes of Theresa May are unfathomable. Her original mantra of “Brexit means Brexit” seems to have morphed into a devious attempt to railroad us into BRINO, Brexit in name only. She justifies this by claiming that she is trying to get the “best possible deal” for the people of the UK. The problem is that her definition of “best possible” is slanted to the anti-sovereignty, pro-big business (who wanted us to join the Euro), pro-EU political gravy train views of the minority Remainer establishment who lost the referendum. She and the establishment Remainers have distorted the Leave vote to be a false trade-off between “taking back control” versus avoiding any potential minor economic “bumps in the road” resulting from a clean Brexit. Somehow the high membership fee, protectionist, unaccountable, over-regulated, economically declining, bullying, politically and monetarily unstable EU with its uncontrolled borders and sky-high youth unemployment is being portrayed as a precious, indispensable comfort-blanket.

    You would think that the fact that the EU is supported mostly by left-wingers, mainly on ideological grounds (e.g. cradle to grave welfare, climate change obsession, fatuous notions of internationalism), would be enough to warn her off. I read recently that about half of Conservative MPs voted Leave and of course a large majority of Conservative voters supported Leave. Theresa May needs to come to her senses, otherwise we are heading for Corbyn as the next prime minister. At least we will be able to vote him out.

    PS: Love your blog photo. We had a great family beach picnic recently just along the road at Hopeman.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Great comment, Douglas! Thanks.

      I’m coming around to the idea that if there were a General Election tomorrow I would campaign for, and vote Labour. My logic is that we need a period of creative destruction. We need the British people to understand what a conservative-free country looks like. The Conservative Party is not a conservative party. We need to let Labour destroy both the UK economy and the Conservative Party as it is. Unlike our EU masters, we can vote out our national masters. From that destruction we might just be able to re-create true conservatism and create a new UK political order where the public gets a genuine choice between socialism and conservatism. Today, the public is faced with a choice between left-liberal-socialism-mush (the Conservative Party) or unreconstructed Marxism (the Labour Party). The LibDems are simply a joke on the sidelines.

      Hopeman is indeed the place to be!

      Liked by 1 person

    2. She is not going ‘to come to her senses’. She is doing exactly what she always intended, to stop Brexit. She is a stooge and a deceitful, liar and being allowed to betray the 17.4 million Leave voters by the spineless, gutless Tory MPs who won’t remove her.

      This will destroy the Tory Party (they are no longer a Conservative Party) at the next GE and they fully deserve it. Personally, I hope they are destroyed forever.

      Like

  10. aluinn · · Reply

    This is most erudite and should be required reading fir all politicians, teachers and pupils.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Thank you aluinn. I try to simplify the complex as far as possible, without being simplistic. I’m a Libertarian too and, therefore, permanently suspicious of politicians and the state. I accept that a society should be governed, but I always return to Abraham Lincoln’s maxim: government of the people, by the people, for the people. In recent years, in the UK and in the European Union in particular we’ve moved a long way from Lincoln’s expectation. Hence the rise in populism in Europe – where populism in my book is a good thing: ‘support for the concerns of ordinary people’.

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  11. It was all done quite deliberately. May was chosen specifically to stop Brexit.

    May is a stooge. Put in place by Tory donors i.e. Big Business, Civil Service & Common Purpose who control her. Everything she does is under instructions from these fanatical Remainers. Most people fell (for a while) for her lies and deceit. Now she is not even attempting to hide her betrayal. She is delivering what her masters wanted.

    She is utterly useless, weak and pathetic as a leader but has one goal – stop Brexit.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Yes, it’s hard to rationalise the idea that Theresa May was and remains the best person to lead the UK out of the EU. Only in politics could a group of people get away with such incompetence for so long without redress.

      Like

      1. aluinn · · Reply

        Its hard to rationalise Teresa May leading anything except the queue at the Post Office, bless her dogged little heart

        Like

  12. Michael Foster · · Reply

    As always- a good read. Can you for the benefit of your readers explain to me the Northern Ireland issue , backstop etc. i just dont understand it at all. I thought EU countries need strong external borders with non- EU countries and border checks, so why is this not to be applied to N.I. Otherwise what is to stop EU nationals just walking into N.I.? Apologies if you have already discussed this , but it does seem to be a major stumbling block

    Liked by 1 person

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Thanks Michael. Yes, I’ll attempt to explain the NI backstop dooh-dah in plain English presently.

      Like

    2. S J MacDonald · · Reply

      May I cordially suggest you read articles about the Irish “problem” on John Redwood’s blog, where it is made clear that this is an issue cooked up by the EU’s poodle, Varadkar.

      Like

      1. According to my economic model, the Irish economy, already in very deep trouble, could suffer a lot worse than Britain from a bungled “Brexit”. I’m not sure whether the Irish or EU authorities are (a) unaware of the extremity of risk, (b) bluffing, or (c) cavalier about this. Here, if you’re interested, is the link.

        https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/09/05/134-an-extremity-of-risk/

        Like

  13. I’ve always thought the long term plan was to allow a referendum and then use the ensuing ‘negotiations’ to force change on the UK with hitherto we have had opt-outs (Euro, Schengen, etc). Win or lose, it was just a mechanism for breaking the log-jam to a USE which the UK has been.

    They want the UK begging to be let back in and this will be the price we will pay if we do (Germany simply cannot carry the can on its own though I’m not the UK can do much either) but that is the long term plan of the EU elite I suspect.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Apologies for my typo’s (entered on an iPhone)

      Liked by 1 person

  14. One might – to quote you, MM – ‘reasonably think’, too, that the referendum process was designed to let the voters decide whether to Leave or Remain in the EU. But to think that is to miss the point.

    The sole purpose of the referendum was to resolve divisions in the Conservative party.

    David Cameron would never have called it had he anticipated a Leave outcome – just like Mrs May would never have called a General Election had she not believed, with all the ‘experts’, that the outcome would be a Tory majority of 100-120 seats, and a derisive, sub-25% vote for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn (remember those confident “expert” forecasts?)

    She is now, supposedly, trying to negotiate something – Brexit – in which she does not believe. That’s about as rational as putting a soccer guru in charge of a rugger team.

    The process, ever since the vote was lost by the establishment, has been played out along internal party lines. The “Chequers” proposal was not designed to reach a deal with the EU, but to provoke Boris Johnson, David Davis and others into resignation.

    The aim now, as I said here a long time ago, is BINO – Brexit In Name Only. About what one might expect in a DINO – Democracy In Name Only?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Yes, Tim, small wonder the politicians and civil service made no contingency plans whatsoever to deal with a Leave result. And yes, agreed again, to the ludicrous situation where the leader of a mission believes not in the mission. I can think of few walks of life other than politics where this would be deemed to be a mission-achieving state of affairs!

      I don’t think I’m straying into hyperbole by questioning whether democracy itself is at stake here.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I suspect that the only person who can watch this with equanimity is Mr Corbyn.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. aluinn · · Reply

          He probably would, if he could spell it…..

          Like

      2. The entire charade is aimed at destroying democracy, albeit, there are a few who see the glimmer of light at the end of the tunnelling. ‘www dot livingstones dot blog’

        Like

  15. An excellent summary of this dire situation. The way TM is consistently scheming, the next step will be ‘blood on the streets’, which might just enable her to call on the PESCO patrols to put all the sheeple back in their respective pens.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. moraymint · · Reply

      Thanks Andrew. I do sometimes wonder at what point, if any, the British people’s blood will boil over. Certainly, the Conservative government specifically and the political class more generally are turning up the heat – recklessly, it seems to me.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. This is proving a massive distraction when the focus really ought to be on the parlous state of the economy.

        The EU, too, are far from blameless – is punishing the temerity of British voters more important than dealing with the Italian situation, at a time when insurgents (aka “populists”) are gaining ever more ground in Europe?

        What we’re watching is a process of “stalling between two fools”.

        Liked by 2 people

        1. moraymint · · Reply

          Yes, the circumstances are truly extraordinary really. I’m often left speechless at the increasing number of displays of political incompetence that we’ve been witnessing in recent years. It’s as if the political class has taken leave of its senses. Quite what the end-game of all of this is, is anybody’s guess …

          Liked by 1 person

          1. This is the result of the loss of sovereignty, the politicians we have now are members of a talking shop as all the major decisions are made by the Brussels bureaucracy and just rubber stamped through by parliament,

            No need for intelligent strong politicians at a national level hence the rise of the ‘professional politician’ who have never had a real job in their lives. They just tow the respective party lines. Its all window dressing which is why nothing much changes year on year irrespective of whoever is in ‘power’.

            Liked by 1 person

          2. Globally, the most important powers wielded by government are economic and financial.

            These powers have now been surrendered to the central banks, a direct consequence of the disastrous mess made in the years preceding 2008, whereupon the idiots whose folly caused the crash largely abdicated from economic policy, washing their hands of their own mistakes.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. moraymint · · Reply

              Sigh …

              Like

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