BREXIT: SCOTIT NEXT?


nicola-sturgeon

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is arguing that the Scottish people voted for the UK to remain in the European Union; therefore, since the UK is now set to leave the European Union (aka Brexit), Scotland should be allowed to remain in the EU. For this to be made possible, there should be a second Scottish Independence Referendum so that Scotland’s voters can vote for independence from the UK (let’s call it ‘Scotit’) and then, er, cede that independence to the European Commission.

So, on the matter of the EU Referendum, Mrs Sturgeon’s view is that the democratic wish of the people must be observed; she will fight for Scotland to remain a member of the EU. On the matter of the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum, Mrs Sturgeon’s view is that the democratic wish of the people must not be observed; she will fight for an ‘independent’ Scotland, to be governed by others.  I must say that I’m struggling a bit with all this.

I can’t elucidate quite why (yet), but I have a pretty strong sense that, once again, the political class (specifically the SNP, to be honest) is semi-detached from popular reality. I suspect that if there were a second Scottish Independence Referendum tomorrow the voters of Scotland (carefully worded as such) would vote to remain in the UK.

I say this especially if the SNP pitched its side of the argument in any such referendum as ‘Vote for Scottish independence so that Scotland can re-join the European Union’. The Scottish EU Remain vote as part of a UK-wide referendum would not, in my opinion, automatically transpose into a vote for an ‘independent’ Scotland predicated heavily on Scotland re-joining the EU.

Sturgeon may well have shot herself in the foot (and arm, leg, stomach, face etc) by linking Scottish ‘independence’ so strongly to EU membership. I suspect that the truly fervent Scottish nationalists want just that: an independent Scottish nation, not one governed by some faceless blokes in Brussels. Many of the rest of Scotland’s voters, if they have an appetite at all for all this, would probably either not bother to vote in a second Scottish Independence Referendum, or would vote to stick with the UK.

The fundamental challenge for the politicos now is whether to entertain a second Scottish Independence Referendum at all? Goodness knows how they/we decide on that one.

Meantime, despite everything this past few weeks, I just can’t see 50+% of Scottish voters laying awake at night hankering after life in the European Union – like Mrs Sturgeon seems to be doing.

14 comments

  1. Douglas Brodie · ·

    The SNP uses blatant spin to deliberately misinterpret the Scottish vote in the EU referendum (turnout 67%), knowing full well that Scotland voted unambiguously in 2014 to remain in the UK (turnout 85%). The EU referendum question was whether or not the UK should remain in the EU. It is not valid to interpret the Scottish vote (62% remain) to mean that Scotland wishes to remain in the EU even when the rest of the UK leaves.

    The SNP will have an even bigger job on their hands than in 2014 to persuade a majority of Scots to leave the UK in order to join the EU (legally Scotland is not currently a member) as it would mean: raising taxes and/or cutting services to balance the catastrophic loss of North Sea oil revenues and the loss of the UK block grant which subsidises the Scots by about £1,500 more per head per year than the English, at a time when the Scottish economy is already in a stalled, zero-growth state; loss of the UK rebate, hence an unambiguous £350 million per week pro rata gross EU membership fee; loss of UK opt-outs (Schengen, Euro, justice and home affairs legislation, …); creating a border barrier with our biggest and most important trading partner (65% of trade with rUK vs. only 19% with the EU); joining the protectionist, over-regulated, sclerotic EU economy which has been shrinking for decades as a percentage of both UK exports and global GDP; enforced joining of the unworkable Euro which is causing 40% youth unemployment across much of southern Europe and a potential banking crisis in Italy; rule by unelected foreign bureaucrats who will demand (unlike Westminster) Greek-style austerity measures to bring down Scotland’s out-of-control £15 billion annual budget deficit, almost 10% of GDP and way above the EU’s stability and growth pact 3% limit; subject to the pending new EU tax about to be rolled out via EU personal id numbers; subject to unworkable EU climate and energy policies which are rendering businesses uncompetitive to no useful purpose; loss of Trident Faslane base jobs and future UK defence contracts; no control of Scottish fishing waters which Brexit would allow; leaving a liberated UK with tremendous new worldwide opportunities in order to gain a tiny voice (around 1% by population) at the “top table” of the anti-democratic, failing EU.

    A move to leave the UK in order to join the EU would be a terrible case of cutting off your nose to spite your face, all for the sake of an inflexible political obsession. And this is assuming no EU/Spanish veto on joining. All this when we don’t even know the Brexit terms, which if sense prevails will be favourable and give the UK continuing tariff-free access to the EU market and freedom to work and travel, not that there are many job opportunities for young people in the EU at present.

    For all their desperate bluster the SNP must realise that the chances of Scotland joining the EU within, say, a decade are negligible, even on the unfavourable terms listed above. Their undemocratic outrage at the EU referendum vote is just a ploy to get another independence referendum. When the people realise they are being hoodwinked (again) the SNP will lose the potential support of Europhiles who voted No in 2014.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. moraymint · ·

      Great analysis; thanks Douglas …

      Like

  2. Old Goat · ·

    Linked to GoingPostal, and Breitbart.

    Good piece, again.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. reallyoldbill · ·

    I think the mistake that the SNP is making is to see those votes cast in Scotland in the EU referendum as the “Scottish vote”. In fact the vote was a UK one, and as Scotland only recently voted to remain within the UK then any votes cast north of the border are simply a part of the whole. The UK (that is all the constituents parts of it viewed as one entity) voted to leave the EU. To suggest that Scotland “voted to remain” is a bit like saying “London voted to remain” (which in fact it did). Democracy, inconvenient as it can sometimes be for some, works like that. The majority decided to leave the EU. Get over it, Nicola. To suggest that because a majority of those north of the border (and remember that the population there is smaller than that of Greater London) wanted to stay, Scotland should therefore have some kind of veto is ridiculous. What if London with its much larger population called for the same thing? The UK would be ungovernable. A majority is a majority and it wasn’t a regional vote. Which bit of that can’t she understand? Would she agree that, should the Orkneys or the Shetlands have voted to leave they could call for a split from Scotland? I very much doubt it.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Arfur · ·

    As a proud Welshman who in no way wishes Wales to gain independence from the UK, I am aghast at the idea that Nicola Sturgeon has tried to link Scottish independence to membership of the EU.

    I’ve said before on this forum that I suspect your average Scot will have more sense than to believe that the two should be intrinsically linked. Obviously Moraymint has sufficient common sense.

    I have a few questions which spring to mind. Can anyone shed light?

    How much will Scotland have to pay to the EU to join the European Stability Mechanism (this is mandatory if Scotland adopts the Euro – which is very likely)? By my reckoning it would be somewhere between €10 billion and €16 billion. This will go into the EU ‘pot’ to support Eurozone countries in gross financial difficulties.

    How much debt does Scotland have? £15 billion? More?

    What does ‘Scotland’ (quote marks used to denote the overall voting public) plan to do about Defence? What happens to Faslane, Leuchars and the ‘Scottish’ regiments? Will Nicola expect Scottish soldiers to just move up North and replace the other UK soldiers moving back South?

    What does Scotland plan to do about the NHS? Maybe Scotland will prefer a sort of ‘soft Scotit’?

    What happens to the Monarchy? Don’t tell me, Scotland will wish to keep Her Majesty as some sort of ‘show Monarch’ and pretend she won’t care? Oh, and keep the £ because otherwise it’s too difficult?

    Does anyone know for sure what happens about the oil revenue? Were the initial contracts between the Oil Companies and the UK Government, or Scotland?

    Does NS seriously think the EU is actually going to get better? Seriously?

    I’m sure all these questions have answers, so I’d be curious to find out…

    Either way it is a fascinating dynamic and I might just get a big basket of popcorn and watch the years-long ‘debates’! Maybe by the time Scottish Referendum 2 comes along, the EU might have already imploded.

    Just saying’…

    Liked by 2 people

    1. moraymint · ·

      For what it’s worth, I don’t think a second Scottish Referendum will happen. What we’re witnessing now is the political class in Scotland (= the SNP) grandstanding for their own self-serving ends. The British people, the Scots included, just want to knuckle down and get on with their lives. The SNP could do themselves and the people of Scotland a big favour by just getting on and running the feckin’ country …

      Like

      1. Arfur · ·

        Ok, I’ll hold on the popcorn just yet! 🙂

        Liked by 1 person

  5. Some Chicken! Some Neck! · ·

    Always writing what I’m thinking, moraymint, but you articulate it so much better than I can. Thanks!

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Sonia MacDonald · ·

    Totally agree MM; I know Scotland has long and historic ties to France rather than England (overlooking the fact that we have shared a Monarch since 1603), but I still can’t see why it would want to sacrifice all the advantages of its current status and position in order to become a wee minnow in the EU ocean.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Exactly. Since they had their first vote, the oil revenues dropped severely. If the Scots vote to leave the UK surely they will lose income from the UK taxpayer, or at the very least, the Barnett formula will be revisited and reduced for Scotland to make it more equitable for the UK population as a whole.

    Devolution has had a raft of unexpected consequences unforeseen by Blair and Brown who saw it as a good idea. I just hope that our present politicians and officials look at all possible effects of Brexit before making any concrete proposals. Best to plot and plan first, and carry out a benefit and risk analysis to ensure that the UK benefits from breaking free from the EU and doesn’t pay too high a price just to be able to sell goods and services to and buy other goods and services from the EU.

    I read yesterday that French fishermen are allowed to fish within 6 miles of the British Coast, yet our fishermen are not allowed closer than 12 miles – no wonder that our fishing fleet has been decimated, and that the ‘Common Market’ was not so common or fair to the UK. Time to build more patrol vessels and restore our waters to international standards – a minimum of 12 nautical miles and ideally 200 meaning that the Irish Sea would be shared between the UK and Ireland and all other commercial fishermen excluded.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. If Scotland leave the UK the Barnett formula should not be reduced. All subsidies for Scotland should cease – the UK has just voted to stop financially supporting foreign countries.

      Entirely agree with you about fishing though. If we can get the Spanish and French trawlers out of the waters surrounding the UK we can institute a fishing policy like Norway and have a plentiful supply of fish.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. moraymint · ·

      Good, thanks. Part of the mistake in devolving powers to NI, Scotland and Wales (nothing wrong with that, as such) was to leave England and the English in the lurch. If we’re to sustain the political system of devolution to the national components of the United Kingdom (like I said, nothing wrong with that), then there has to be an English Parliament. For as long as the Scots in particular perceive themselves as being governed by the English (a fair perception under the circumstances), then we’ll end up with a non-trivial proportion of Scottish citizens living with a permanent chip on their shoulders. That ain’t good for any of us …

      Liked by 1 person

  8. You live in Scotland Moraymint, so know more than me, but I don’t think the fishwife has thought through the finances.

    If Scotland joins the EU it will have to adopt the euro as a currency which means it will be financing Greece and the rest of the Southern Europe Eurozone countries. Couple that with the loss of financial support from the rest of the UK and you have a recipe for disaster.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. moraymint · ·

      Yup. But of no interest to SNP politicians …

      Like

Chauncey Tinker's Blog

Reversing "Western" decline with reason.

The Participator

A father's thoughts for his children ... and other stuff

Have Your Say!

Share your experiences and thoughts about Moray Council

The Worldview

Explaining our world in simple terms

The Brexit Door

Independent thinking for an Independent Britain

EU Referendum Blog

A father's thoughts for his children ... and other stuff

The Slog.

An incorrigible Cognitive Dissident

Surplus Energy Economics

How the economy REALLY works - Tim Morgan

Guido Fawkes

Parliamentary plots and conspiracy

BarristerBlogger

Matthew Scott's Legal Comment Argument and Discussion. Comment Awards 2015 Best Independent Blog

Our Finite World

Exploring how oil limits affect the economy

Independent Sovereign Democratic Britain

A father's thoughts for his children ... and other stuff

Sandy Paterson Mountaineering

A father's thoughts for his children ... and other stuff

Do the Math

A father's thoughts for his children ... and other stuff

John Seymour School

Fruit and Vegetables, Beer, Wine and Cider, Jam, Bread, Jelly, Pigs, Chickens, Eggs, Sausages and Bacon, Pickles and Compost

The Archdruid Report

A father's thoughts for his children ... and other stuff

the.one&only-elspie

A father's thoughts for his children ... and other stuff

azizonomics

Economics, Technology, Futurism

%d bloggers like this: