In 2005 I read James Kunstler’s ‘The Long Emergency’. Since then I have studied in some detail (dare I say enormous detail) the likely trajectory of our society in the coming decade or two.
I’ve tended to follow Chris Martenson’s ‘Crash Course’ framework of viewing the world thro’ the tri-focal lens of energy, the economy and the enivronment.
Without boring you to death with the reasons here, I share your view that there is now a greater than 50/50 chance that our ‘complex society’ will collapse within the lifetime of my children. If you want to learn a little more about the characteristics and leading indicators of societal collapse then I would recommend reading Joseph Tainter’s ‘The Collapse of Complex Societies’, Jared Diamond’s ‘Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive’ and John Michael Greer’s ‘The Long Descent’.
Family Moraymint’s preparations revolve around the sort of advice one gets from Rob Hopkins’ ‘The Transition Handbook’ and John Seymour’s ‘The Complete Book of Self Sufficiency’, to name but two.
Now, I’m off in to the garden with Mrs Moraymint to continue work on my raised seed beds, feed the chickens and channel yet more rainwater into a third 100 litre water butt. This afternoon I shall continue training my springer spaniel puppy to the gun, in anticipation of the next game shooting season.
Yes, I hold gold and silver coins and have been building my stock of both for the past 5 years.
Believe it or not, the prospect of a serious deterioration in my standard of living doesn’t bother me at all (for it’s coming). What I do get concerned about is the wider lack of socio-economic resilience in our society, the prospect of growing civil unrest in the face of deteriorating living standards (economic contraction) and, most of all, the abject failure of our political class to understand where (admittedly in my view) the world is heading for the next generation.
Complex societies have regressed time and again throughout history. If one studies that history there’s no reason at all to assume that we’re immune to collapse; on the contrary, in fact. The problem this time around – as Joseph Tainter makes clear – is that any such collapse would almost certainly be global.
[Originally posted as a comment on the Daily Telegraph website 27 May 12]